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Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate

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Title: Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate
Authors: Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Mizumoto, Kenji Browse this author
Chowell, Gerardo Browse this author
Keywords: COVID-19
Basic Reproduction Number
Growth rate
Models
Statistical
Issue Date: May-2020
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal Title: International journal of infectious diseases
Volume: 94
Start Page: 116
End Page: 118
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.021
Abstract: Since the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 in China, it has rapidly spread around the world, leading to one of the most significant pandemic events of recent history. Deriving reliable estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate is quite important to guide the timing and intensity of intervention strategies. Indeed, many studies have quantified the epidemic growth rate using time-series of reported cases during the early phase of the outbreak to estimate the basic reproduction number, R-0. Using daily time series of COVID-19 incidence, we illustrate how epidemic curves of reported cases may not always reflect the true epidemic growth rate due to changes in testing rates, which could be influenced by limited diagnostic testing capacity during the early epidemic phase. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
Rights: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/78721
Appears in Collections:人獣共通感染症リサーチセンター (Research Center for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 大森 亮介

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