| Title: | Comparison of vulnerability to catastrophic wind between Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests in northern Japan |
| Authors: | Morimoto, Junko Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Nakagawa, Kosuke Browse this author |
| Takano, Kohei T. Browse this author |
| Aiba, Masahiro Browse this author |
| Oguro, Michio Browse this author |
| Furukawa, Yasuto Browse this author |
| Mishima, Yoshio Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Ogawa, Kenta Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Ito, Rui Browse this author |
| Takemi, Tetsuya Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Nakamura, Futoshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Peterson, Chris J. Browse this author |
| Keywords: | artificial plantation forests |
| wind disturbance |
| risk management |
| stand structure |
| susceptibility to winds |
| Issue Date: | Oct-2019 |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
| Journal Title: | Forestry |
| Volume: | 92 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Start Page: | 436 |
| End Page: | 443 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1093/forestry/cpy045 |
| Abstract: | The risk of extreme events due to weather and climate change, such as winds of unprecedented magnitude, is predicted to increase throughout this century. Artificial ecosystems, such as coniferous plantation forests, can suffer irreversible deterioration due to even a slight change in environmental conditions. However, few studies have examined the effects of converting natural forests to plantations on their vulnerability to catastrophic winds. By modelling the 2004 windthrow event of Typhoon Songda in northern Japan using the random forest machine learning method, we answered two questions: do Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests differ in their vulnerability to strong winds and how do winds, topography and forest structure affect their vulnerability. Our results show that Abies plantation forests are more vulnerable to catastrophic wind than natural mixed forests under most conditions. However, the windthrow process was common to both types of forests, and the behaviour of wind inside the forests may determine the windthrow probability. Future management options for adapting to climate change were proposed based on these findings, including modifications of plantation forest structure to reduce windthrow risk and reconversion of plantations to natural forests. |
| Rights: | This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research following peer review. The version of record "Comparison of vulnerability to catastrophic wind between Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests in northern Japan"Volume 92, Issue 4, October 2019, Pages 436–443 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpy045 |
| Type: | article (author version) |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79388 |
| Appears in Collections: | 農学院・農学研究院 (Graduate School of Agriculture / Faculty of Agriculture) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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