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The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

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Title: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Authors: Goelzer, Heiko Browse this author
Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author
Payne, Anthony Browse this author
Larour, Eric Browse this author
Seroussi, Helene Browse this author
Lipscomb, William H Browse this author
Gregory, Jonathan Browse this author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author
Shepherd, Andrew Browse this author
Simon, Erika Browse this author
Agosta, Cécile Browse this author
Alexander, Patrick Browse this author
Aschwanden, Andy Browse this author
Barthel, Alice Browse this author
Calov, Reinhard Browse this author
Chambers, Christopher Browse this author
Choi, Youngmin Browse this author
Cuzzone, Joshua Browse this author
Dumas, Christophe Browse this author
Edwards, Tamsin Browse this author
Felikson, Denis Browse this author
Fettweis, Xavier Browse this author
Golledge, Nicholas R Browse this author
Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Humbert, Angelika Browse this author
Huybrechts, Philippe Browse this author
Le clec'h, Sebastien Browse this author
Lee, Victoria Browse this author
Leguy, Gunter Browse this author
Little, Chris Browse this author
Lowry, Daniel P Browse this author
Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author
Nias, Isabel Browse this author
Quiquet, Aurelien Browse this author
Rückamp, Martin Browse this author
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Browse this author
Slater, Donald A Browse this author
Smith, Robin S Browse this author
Straneo, Fiamma Browse this author
Tarasov, Lev Browse this author
van de Wal, Roderik Browse this author
van den Broeke, Michiel Browse this author
Issue Date: 17-Sep-2020
Journal Title: The Cryosphere
Volume: 14
Issue: 9
Start Page: 3071
End Page: 3096
Publisher DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
Abstract: The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
Rights: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79741
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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