| Title: | The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
| Authors: | Goelzer, Heiko Browse this author |
| Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author |
| Payne, Anthony Browse this author |
| Larour, Eric Browse this author |
| Seroussi, Helene Browse this author |
| Lipscomb, William H Browse this author |
| Gregory, Jonathan Browse this author |
| Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author |
| Shepherd, Andrew Browse this author |
| Simon, Erika Browse this author |
| Agosta, Cécile Browse this author |
| Alexander, Patrick Browse this author |
| Aschwanden, Andy Browse this author |
| Barthel, Alice Browse this author |
| Calov, Reinhard Browse this author |
| Chambers, Christopher Browse this author |
| Choi, Youngmin Browse this author |
| Cuzzone, Joshua Browse this author |
| Dumas, Christophe Browse this author |
| Edwards, Tamsin Browse this author |
| Felikson, Denis Browse this author |
| Fettweis, Xavier Browse this author |
| Golledge, Nicholas R Browse this author |
| Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Humbert, Angelika Browse this author |
| Huybrechts, Philippe Browse this author |
| Le clec'h, Sebastien Browse this author |
| Lee, Victoria Browse this author |
| Leguy, Gunter Browse this author |
| Little, Chris Browse this author |
| Lowry, Daniel P Browse this author |
| Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author |
| Nias, Isabel Browse this author |
| Quiquet, Aurelien Browse this author |
| Rückamp, Martin Browse this author |
| Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Browse this author |
| Slater, Donald A Browse this author |
| Smith, Robin S Browse this author |
| Straneo, Fiamma Browse this author |
| Tarasov, Lev Browse this author |
| van de Wal, Roderik Browse this author |
| van den Broeke, Michiel Browse this author |
| Issue Date: | 17-Sep-2020 |
| Journal Title: | The Cryosphere |
| Volume: | 14 |
| Issue: | 9 |
| Start Page: | 3071 |
| End Page: | 3096 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 |
| Abstract: | The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79741 |
| Appears in Collections: | 低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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