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ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

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Title: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Authors: Seroussi, Hélène Browse this author
Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author
Payne, Antony J Browse this author
Goelzer, Heiko Browse this author
Lipscomb, William H Browse this author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author
Agosta, Cécile Browse this author
Albrecht, Torsten Browse this author
Asay-Davis, Xylar Browse this author
Barthel, Alice Browse this author
Calov, Reinhard Browse this author
Cullather, Richard Browse this author
Dumas, Christophe Browse this author
Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Browse this author
Gladstone, Rupert Browse this author
Golledge, Nicholas R Browse this author
Gregory, Jonathan M Browse this author
Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Hattermann, Tore Browse this author
Hoffman, Matthew J Browse this author
Humbert, Angelika Browse this author
Huybrechts, Philippe Browse this author
Jourdain, Nicolas C Browse this author
Kleiner, Thomas Browse this author
Larour, Eric Browse this author
Leguy, Gunter R Browse this author
Lowry, Daniel P Browse this author
Little, Chistopher M Browse this author
Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author
Pattyn, Frank Browse this author
Pelle, Tyler Browse this author
Price, Stephen F Browse this author
Quiquet, Aurélien Browse this author
Reese, Ronja Browse this author
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Browse this author
Shepherd, Andrew Browse this author
Simon, Erika Browse this author
Smith, Robin S Browse this author
Straneo, Fiammetta Browse this author
Sun, Sainan Browse this author
Trusel, Luke D Browse this author
Van Breedam, Jonas Browse this author
van de Wal, Roderik S. W Browse this author
Winkelmann, Ricarda Browse this author
Zhao, Chen Browse this author
Zhang, Tong Browse this author
Zwinger, Thomas Browse this author
Issue Date: 2020
Journal Title: The Cryosphere
Volume: 14
Issue: 9
Start Page: 3033
End Page: 3070
Publisher DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
Abstract: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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