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Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling

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Title: Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling
Authors: Morii, Yasuhiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Furuta, Seiichi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Ishikawa, Tomoki Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Fujiwara, Kensuke Browse this author
Yamashina, Hiroko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Health human resourcing
System dynamics modeling
Issue Date: 5-Nov-2020
Publisher: BioMed Central
Journal Title: Human resources for health
Volume: 18
Start Page: 85
Publisher DOI: 10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5
PMID: 33153487
Abstract: Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. Methods The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. Results The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Conclusion Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:保健科学院・保健科学研究院 (Graduate School of Health Sciences / Faculty of Health Sciences) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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