| Title: | Assessment of the confidence interval in the multivariable normal tissue complication probability model for predicting radiation-induced liver disease in primary liver cancer |
| Authors: | Prayongrat, Anussara Browse this author |
| Srimaneekarn, Natchalee Browse this author |
| Sriswasdi, Sira Browse this author |
| Ito, Yoichi M. Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Katoh, Norio Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Tamura, Masaya Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Dekura, Yasuhiro Browse this author |
| Toramatsu, Chie Browse this author |
| Khorprasert, Chonlakiet Browse this author |
| Amornwichet, Napapat Browse this author |
| Alisanant, Petch Browse this author |
| Hirata, Yuichi Browse this author |
| Hayter, Anthony Browse this author |
| Shirato, Hiroki Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Shimizu, Shinichi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Kobashi, Keiji Browse this author |
| Keywords: | normal tissue complication probability |
| radiation-induced liver disease |
| multivariable |
| confidence interval |
| prediction model |
| Issue Date: | May-2021 |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
| Journal Title: | Journal of Radiation Research |
| Volume: | 62 |
| Issue: | 3 |
| Start Page: | 483 |
| End Page: | 493 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1093/jrr/rrab011 |
| Abstract: | We developed a confidence interval-(CI) assessing model in multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modeling for predicting radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in primary liver cancer patients using clinical and dosimetric data. Both the mean NTCP and difference in the mean NTCP (Delta NTCP) between two treatment plans of different radiotherapy modalities were further evaluated and their CIs were assessed. Clinical data were retrospectively reviewed in 322 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 215) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (n = 107) treated with photon therapy. Dose-volume histograms of normal liver were reduced to mean liver dose (MLD) based on the fraction size-adjusted equivalent uniform dose. The most predictive variables were used to build the model based on multivariable logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping. Internal validation was performed using the cross-validation leave-one-out method. Both the mean NTCP and the mean Delta NTCP with 95% CIs were calculated from computationally generated multivariate random sets of NTCP model parameters using variance-covariance matrix information. RILD occurred in 108/322 patients (33.5%). The NTCP model with three clinical and one dosimetric parameter (tumor type, Child-Pugh class, hepatitis infection status and MLD) was most predictive, with an area under the receiver operative characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84). In eight clinical subgroups based on the three clinical parameters, both the mean NTCP and the mean Delta NTCP with 95% CIs were able to be estimated computationally. The multivariable NTCP model with the assessment of 95% CIs has potential to improve the reliability of the NTCP model-based approach to select the appropriate radiotherapy modality for each patient. |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/83168 |
| Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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