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Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark

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Title: Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
Authors: Ito, Kimihito Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Piantham, Chayada Browse this author
Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author
Keywords: epidemiology
evolution
SARS coronavirus
Issue Date: 8-Feb-2022
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Journal Title: Journal of medical virology
Publisher DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27560
Abstract: The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants registered from Denmark in the GISAID database, we found that the effective (instantaneous) reproduction number of Omicron is 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.82-3.61) times greater than that of Delta under the same epidemiological conditions. The proportion of Omicron infections among all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark was expected to exceed 95% on December 28, 2021, with a 95% CI from December 25 to December 31, 2021. Given that the Delta variant or variants less transmissible than Delta are dominant in most countries, the rapid increase in Omicron in the virus population may be observed as soon as the Omicron is introduced. Preparing proactive control measures is vital, assuming the substantial advantage of the transmission by Omicron.
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/84053
Appears in Collections:人獣共通感染症国際共同研究所 (International Institute for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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