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Risk factors and spatio-temporal patterns of livestock anthrax in Khuvsgul Province, Mongolia

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Title: Risk factors and spatio-temporal patterns of livestock anthrax in Khuvsgul Province, Mongolia
Authors: Zorigt, Tuvshinzaya Browse this author
Ito, Satoshi Browse this author
Isoda, Norikazu Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Furuta, Yoshikazu Browse this author
Shawa, Misheck Browse this author
Norov, Natsagdorj Browse this author
Lkham, Baasansuren Browse this author
Enkhtuya, Jargalsaikhan Browse this author
Higashi, Hideaki Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Issue Date: 19-Nov-2021
Publisher: PLOS
Journal Title: PLoS ONE
Volume: 16
Issue: 11
Start Page: e0260299
Publisher DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260299
Abstract: Anthrax is a worldwide zoonotic disease. Anthrax has long been a public health and socio-economic issue in Mongolia. Presently, there is no spatial information on carcass burial sites as a potential hazard of future anthrax outbreaks and possible risk factors associated with anthrax occurrences in Mongolia. Here, we analyze retrospective data (1986-2015) on the disposal sites of livestock carcasses to describe historical spatio-temporal patterns of livestock anthrax in Khuvsgul Province, which showed the highest anthrax incidence rate in Mongolia. From the results of spatial mean and standard deviational ellipse analyses, we found that the anthrax spatial distribution in livestock did not change over the study period, indicating a localized source of exposure. The multi-distance spatial cluster analysis showed that carcass sites distributed in the study area are clustered. Using kernel density estimation analysis on carcass sites, we identified two anthrax hotspots in low-lying areas around the south and north regions. Notably, this study disclosed a new hotspot in the northern part that emerged in the last decade of the 30-year study period. The highest proportion of cases was recorded in cattle, whose prevalence per area was highest in six districts (i.e., Murun, Chandmani-Undur, Khatgal, Ikh-Uul, Tosontsengel, and Tsagaan-Uul), suggesting that vaccination should prioritize cattle in these districts. Furthermore, size of outbreaks was influenced by the annual summer mean air temperature of Khuvsgul Province, probably by affecting the permafrost freeze-thawing activity.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:人獣共通感染症国際共同研究所 (International Institute for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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