HUSCAP logo Hokkaido Univ. logo

Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
Graduate School of Agriculture / Faculty of Agriculture >
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >

Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan

This item is licensed under:Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Files in This Item:
2016WT_ms.pdf本文829.54 kBPDFView/Open
2016WT_sm.pdf455.16 kBPDFView/Open
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

Title: Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan
Authors: Morimoto, Junko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Aiba, Masahiro Browse this author
Furukawa, Flavio Browse this author
Mishima, Yoshio Browse this author
Yoshimura, Nobuhiko Browse this author
Nayak, Sridhara Browse this author
Takemi, Tetsuya Browse this author
Chihiro, Haga Browse this author
Matsui, Takanori Browse this author
Nakamura, Futoshi Browse this author
Keywords: Windthrow
Risk assessment
Total precipitation
Forest structure
Climate change
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2021
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal Title: Forest ecology and management
Volume: 479
Start Page: 118521
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118521
Abstract: Under future climate regimes, the risk of typhoons accompanied by heavy rains is expected to increase. Although the risk of disturbance to forest stands by strong winds has long been of interest, we have little knowledge of how the process is mediated by storms and precipitation. Using machine learning, we assess the disturbance risk to cool-temperate forests by typhoons that landed in northern Japan in late August 2016 to determine the features of damage caused by typhoons accompanied by heavy precipitation, discuss how the process is mediated by precipitation as inferred from the modelling results, and delineate the effective solutions for forest management to decrease the future risk in silviculture. In the results, we confirmed two types of behaviours in the model: one represents the same process as that of forest disturbance by strong wind, which has been widely studied, and another represents a unique process mediated by storms and precipitation that has not been previously investigated. Specifically, the ridges that received strong wind from the front side had the highest risk of disturbance. Precipitation increased the probability of disturbance in forest stands, and its effect was dependent on the dominant species composition. Our hypothesis regarding treefall mediated by storms and precipitation is that rainwater flows into the gaps around the tree root systems during sway and the introduction of rainwater below the root-soil plate decreases the root anchorage. The species-specific vulnerability to rainfall may depend on the volume of lateral roots. Modelling the disturbance risk helped us to examine the kinds of factors that were related to exposure and vulnerability that should be managed to effectively decrease the risk of disturbance by typhoons during future uncontrollable hazards. It is recommended to avoid silviculture on the ridges of plateaus considering the high risk estimated in this area. In addition, species with dense lateral roots would be suitable for planting because they may have high resistance to typhoons with heavy precipitation.
Rights: © <2021>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Type: article (author version)
Appears in Collections:農学院・農学研究院 (Graduate School of Agriculture / Faculty of Agriculture) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 森本 淳子

Export metadata:

OAI-PMH ( junii2 , jpcoar_1.0 )

MathJax is now OFF:


 - Hokkaido University