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Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

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Title: Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Authors: Seroussi, Hélène Browse this author
Verjans, Vincent Browse this author
Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author
Payne, Antony J Browse this author
Goelzer, Heiko Browse this author
Lipscomb, William H Browse this author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author
Agosta, Cécile Browse this author
Albrecht, Torsten Browse this author
Asay-Davis, Xylar Browse this author
Barthel, Alice Browse this author
Calov, Reinhard Browse this author
Cullather, Richard Browse this author
Dumas, Christophe Browse this author
Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Browse this author
Gladstone, Rupert Browse this author
Golledge, Nicholas R Browse this author
Gregory, Jonathan M Browse this author
Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Hattermann, Tore Browse this author
Hoffman, Matthew J Browse this author
Humbert, Angelika Browse this author
Huybrechts, Philippe Browse this author
Jourdain, Nicolas C Browse this author
Kleiner, Thomas Browse this author
Larour, Eric Browse this author
Leguy, Gunter R Browse this author
Lowry, Daniel P Browse this author
Little, Chistopher M Browse this author
Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author
Pattyn, Frank Browse this author
Pelle, Tyler Browse this author
Price, Stephen F Browse this author
Quiquet, Aurélien Browse this author
Reese, Ronja Browse this author
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Browse this author
Shepherd, Andrew Browse this author
Simon, Erika Browse this author
Smith, Robin S Browse this author
Straneo, Fiammetta Browse this author
Sun, Sainan Browse this author
Trusel, Luke D Browse this author
Van Breedam, Jonas Browse this author
Van Katwyk, Peter Browse this author
van de Wal, Roderik S. W Browse this author
Winkelmann, Ricarda Browse this author
Zhao, Chen Browse this author
Zhang, Tong Browse this author
Zwinger, Thomas Browse this author
Issue Date: 7-Dec-2023
Publisher: Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Journal Title: The Cryosphere
Volume: 17
Issue: 12
Start Page: 5197
End Page: 5217
Publisher DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
Abstract: The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Greve Ralf

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