| Title: | Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
| Authors: | Seroussi, Hélène Browse this author |
| Pelle, Tyler Browse this author |
| Lipscomb, William H. Browse this author |
| Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author |
| Albrecht, Torsten Browse this author |
| Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge Browse this author |
| Asay‐Davis, Xylar Browse this author |
| Barre, Jean‐Baptiste Browse this author |
| Berends, Constantijn J. Browse this author |
| Bernales, Jorge Browse this author |
| Blasco, Javier Browse this author |
| Caillet, Justine Browse this author |
| Chandler, David M. Browse this author |
| Coulon, Violaine Browse this author |
| Cullather, Richard Browse this author |
| Dumas, Christophe Browse this author |
| Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Browse this author |
| Garbe, Julius Browse this author |
| Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien Browse this author |
| Gladstone, Rupert Browse this author |
| Goelzer, Heiko Browse this author |
| Golledge, Nicholas Browse this author |
| Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Browse this author |
| Han, Holly Kyeore Browse this author |
| Hillebrand, Trevor R. Browse this author |
| Hoffman, Matthew J. Browse this author |
| Huybrechts, Philippe Browse this author |
| Jourdain, Nicolas C. Browse this author |
| Klose, Ann Kristin Browse this author |
| Langebroek, Petra M. Browse this author |
| Leguy, Gunter R. Browse this author |
| Lowry, Daniel P. Browse this author |
| Mathiot, Pierre Browse this author |
| Montoya, Marisa Browse this author |
| Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author |
| Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author |
| Pattyn, Frank Browse this author |
| Payne, Antony J. Browse this author |
| Quiquet, Aurélien Browse this author |
| Reese, Ronja Browse this author |
| Robinson, Alexander Browse this author |
| Saraste, Leopekka Browse this author |
| Simon, Erika G. Browse this author |
| Sun, Sainan Browse this author |
| Twarog, Jake P. Browse this author |
| Trusel, Luke D. Browse this author |
| Urruty, Benoit Browse this author |
| Van Breedam, Jonas Browse this author |
| van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Browse this author |
| Wang, Yu Browse this author |
| Zhao, Chen Browse this author |
| Zwinger, Thomas Browse this author |
| Issue Date: | 4-Sep-2024 |
| Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
| Journal Title: | Earth's Future |
| Volume: | 12 |
| Issue: | 9 |
| Start Page: | e2024EF004561 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1029/2024EF004561 |
| Abstract: | The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/93042 |
| Appears in Collections: | 低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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