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Constraints to projecting the effects of climate change on mammals

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タイトル: Constraints to projecting the effects of climate change on mammals
著者: Berteaux, D. 著作を一覧する
Humphries, M. M. 著作を一覧する
Krebs, C. J. 著作を一覧する
Lima, M. 著作を一覧する
McAdam, A. G. 著作を一覧する
Pettorelli, N. 著作を一覧する
Réale, D. 著作を一覧する
Saitoh, T. 著作を一覧する
Tkadlec, E. 著作を一覧する
Weladji, R. B. 著作を一覧する
Stenseth, N. Chr. 著作を一覧する
キーワード: Cause-effect relationships
Climate change
Scientific projection
Time series
発行日: 2006年10月13日
出版者: Inter-Research
巻: 32
号: 2
開始ページ: 151
終了ページ: 158
抄録: Ecologists are under pressure to anticipate the ecological effects of climate change. Therefore many ecological publications (and most grant proposals) related to climate claim relevance to the projection of future climate change effects. Yet the steps leading from ecological description and understanding to reliable projection are rarely explicit. A good understanding of the factors which allow the ecological effects of climate change to be effectively anticipated is critical to both the quality of basic science and its application to public policy. We used research performed on mammals to explore scientific approaches to anticipation of climate change effects. We distinguished forecasting models based on correlations from predictive models based on cause-effect relationships. These categories represent extremes along a continuous gradient between pattern description and causal understanding. We suggest that the constraints to our capacity to anticipate fall into 6 broad categories rooted in the development and application of forecasting and predictive models. These categories help to identify the conditions that allow or prevent projection of the effects of climate change on ecosystems. This approach should also help to identify which research avenues will likely be most fruitful.
Relation (URI):
資料タイプ: article
出現コレクション:雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

提供者: 齊藤 隆


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