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A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on "cry wolf syndrome" in the case of a landslide
| Title: | A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on "cry wolf syndrome" in the case of a landslide |
| Authors: | Uchida, Kenetsu Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | (I) Decision support system | | (D) OR in societal problem analysis | | "Cry wolf" syndrome | | Disaster warning issuance conditions |
| Issue Date: | 16-Apr-2012 |
| Publisher: | Elsevier B.V. |
| Journal Title: | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Volume: | 218 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page: | 530 |
| End Page: | 537 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.050 |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect "cry wolf' syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the "cry wolf' syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model. |
| Type: | article (author version) |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/49005 |
| Appears in Collections: | 工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 内田 賢悦
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