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Analysis the future shortage and maldistribution of physician by forecasting based on System Dynamics modeling approach

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:http://hdl.handle.net/2115/50334

Title: Analysis the future shortage and maldistribution of physician by forecasting based on System Dynamics modeling approach
Authors: Ishikawa, Tomoki1 Browse this author
Authors(alt): 石川, 智基1
Issue Date: 13-Oct-2012
Citation: 第4回北海道大学サステナビリティ学生研究ポスターコンテスト (The 4th Hokkaido University Sustainability Research Poster Contest). 2012年10月13日-21日. 北海道大学学術交流会館, 札幌市.
Abstract: In Japan, a shortage of physicians has been cited as a major medical issue. To address this problem, the Japanese Government decided to increase the enrollment quota of medical schools. This policy change might affect the supply and distribution of physicians in the future. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the absolute number and maldistribution of future physicians. To analysis, we performed forecasting the physician number by modeling their supply system based on System Dynamics (SD) approach. Moreover, we evaluated the absolute number and maldistribution by calculating sufficiency level and Gini coefficient from 2010 to 2030. As a result, our model forecasts that the physician number would increase 1.36 times and Gini coefficient would decrease from 0.227 to 0.219 in Japan during coverage. The shortage would be resolved and maldistribution would correct in Japan as a whole, while there will be areas that don’t be sufficient at Hokkaido.
Conference Name: Hokkaido University Sustainability Research Poster Contest
北海道大学サステナビリティ学生研究ポスターコンテスト
Conference Sequence: 4
Conference Place: Sapporo
札幌
Type: conference presentation
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/50334
Appears in Collections:北海道大学サステナビリティ・ウィーク2012 (Sustainability Weeks 2012) > 第4回北海道大学サステナビリティ学生研究ポスターコンテスト (The 4th Hokkaido University Sustainability Research Poster Contest)

Submitter: 石川 智基

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