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Survival analysis on bridges for modeling bridge replacement and evaluating bridge performance

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Title: Survival analysis on bridges for modeling bridge replacement and evaluating bridge performance
Authors: Beng, Si Soon Browse this author
Matsumoto, Takashi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Survival analysis
Kaplan-Meier survival curve
Bridge replacement projection model
Issue Date: Mar-2012
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Journal Title: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume: 8
Issue: 3
Start Page: 251
End Page: 268
Publisher DOI: 10.1080/15732471003594393
Abstract: A sustainable civil infrastructure is a prerequisite for achieving sustainability in infrastructure development. However, the finite lifetime of infrastructure indicates a latent mass-maintenance problem in some countries which had experienced mass-construction of infrastructure during high economic growth. To achieve optimal infrastructure management for overcoming this mass-maintenance problem, life prediction of infrastructure is indispensable. Hence, in this research, bridge life assessment from actual bridge survival data of U.S. and Japan was carried out by using the method of survival analysis, a method commonly applied in the field of epidemiology for the analysis of lifetime. The results estimated average bridge life at 93.5 years and a bridge replacement projection model was successfully derived. The bridge replacement projection model can be applied as an approximation for other countries where the same design specifications are followed. By carrying out stratifications of bridge cohorts in U.S., evaluations of bridge performance with respect to structure length; traffic volume and truck traffic volume were also executed.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 松本 高志

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