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Simulation studies to assess the long-term effects of Japan's change from trivalent to quadrivalent influenza vaccination
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| Title: | Simulation studies to assess the long-term effects of Japan's change from trivalent to quadrivalent influenza vaccination |
| Authors: | Tsuzuki, Shinya Browse this author | | Schwehm, Markus Browse this author | | Eichner, Martin Browse this author |
| Keywords: | Influenza | | Vaccination | | Mathematical model | | Cost-effectiveness analysis | | Simulation |
| Issue Date: | 29-Jan-2018 |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| Journal Title: | Vaccine |
| Volume: | 36 |
| Issue: | 5 |
| Start Page: | 624 |
| End Page: | 630 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.12.058 |
| PMID: | 29292176 |
| Abstract: | Background: Since 2013/2014, the WHO has been recommending quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) to prevent seasonal influenza. In 2015, Japan replaced trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) by QIV. We used computer simulations to calculate how this impacted the epidemiology and to assess its cost-effectiveness. Methods: We simulated the seasonal transmission of the four influenza strains A(H1N1), A(H3N2), B/Yamagata and B/Victoria with the individual-based simulation tool 4Flu, using official demographic data and Japanese contact patterns. The model considered maternal protection, immunity boosting, new drift variants and different immunity durations for naturally acquired and vaccination-derived immunity. Starting with the 2015/16 season, simulations were evaluated for 20 years, using either TIV or QIV with the reported vaccination coverage. Costs and years of life saved (YOLSs) were calculated and discounted at 2%, using 2015 as base year. Results: QIV annually prevents on average 548 influenza cases (4.7% of cases which occur when using TIV; 11.9% of influenza B), 1.62 hospitalizations and 0.078 deaths per 100,000 individuals. In Japan's population of 125.35 million, annually 91.51 YOLSs are gained by QIV and 10.75 million USD are saved (societal perspective). From payer perspective, the ICER is 3698 USD/VOLS. Conclusions: QIV is cost-effective (payer perspective) or even cost-saving (societal perspective) in Japan. |
| Description: | Corrigendum: Vaccine. 36(45), 2018, p.6893, DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.09.046 |
| Rights: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/71750 |
| Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 都築 慎也
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