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An early warning criterion for the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures in seasonally cold regions

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Title: An early warning criterion for the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures in seasonally cold regions
Authors: Subramanian, Srikrishnan Siva Browse this author
Ishikawa, Tatsuya Browse this author
Tokoro, Tetsuya Browse this author
Keywords: Snowmelt water
Seasonally cold regions
Soil slope stability
Soil water index
Effective rainfall index
Early warning systems (IGC: E06/E09/E13)
Issue Date: Jun-2018
Publisher: The Japanese Geotechnical society
Journal Title: Soils and foundations
Volume: 58
Issue: 3
Start Page: 582
End Page: 601
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.sandf.2018.02.021
Abstract: In Hokkaido, Japan, soil slope failures occur frequently during the snow melting season. These slope failures are triggered by the excess amount of water derived from snowmelt and rainfall. For the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures in seasonally cold regions, an early warning criterion is required. The existing Japanese early warning criteria for sediment disasters, i.e., the relationship between the 60-min cumulative rainfall and the Soil Water Index (SWI), the effective rainfall index etc., consider the influence of rainfall and the time-dependent random moisture of the soil. However, these criteria do not consider the soil moisture contributed by the snowmelt water. In this study, therefore, the applicability of the existing early warning criteria to predict snowmelt-induced soil slope failures is examined. An empirical method to quantify the amount of snowmelt water is presented. Various scenarios of conceptual soil slope failures are studied using numerical simulations under different magnitudes of rainfall and snowmelt water. As a result, a revision is introduced for the SWI and the effective rainfall index, adding the amount of snowmelt water to that of rainfall, and slope failure scenarios are studied. Based on the results, a new early warning criterion, the Effective Precipitation (EP) index, is introduced. It is found that the new failure criterion performs well for the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures.
Rights: © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type: article (author version)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/78324
Appears in Collections:工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian

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