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The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age
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| Title: | The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age |
| Authors: | Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Matsuyama, Ryota Browse this author | | Nakata, Yukihiko Browse this author |
| Issue Date: | 6-Oct-2020 |
| Publisher: | Nature Research |
| Journal Title: | Scientific reports |
| Volume: | 10 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page: | 16642 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8 |
| Abstract: | Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R-0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79785 |
| Appears in Collections: | 人獣共通感染症国際共同研究所 (International Institute for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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