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The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age

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Title: The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age
Authors: Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Matsuyama, Ryota Browse this author
Nakata, Yukihiko Browse this author
Issue Date: 6-Oct-2020
Publisher: Nature Research
Journal Title: Scientific reports
Volume: 10
Issue: 1
Start Page: 16642
Publisher DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8
Abstract: Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R-0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.
Rights: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79785
Appears in Collections:人獣共通感染症リサーチセンター (Research Center for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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