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Uncertainty Evaluation in Hydrological Frequency Analysis Based on Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval

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Title: Uncertainty Evaluation in Hydrological Frequency Analysis Based on Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval
Authors: Shimizu, Keita Browse this author
Yamada, Tadashi Browse this author
Yamada, Tomohito J. Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: probability limit method test
confidence interval
prediction interval
climate change
future projection database
Issue Date: Sep-2020
Publisher: MDPI
Journal Title: Water
Volume: 12
Issue: 9
Start Page: 2554
Publisher DOI: 10.3390/w12092554
Abstract: The shortage of extreme rainfall data gives substantial uncertainty to design rainfalls and causes predictions for torrential rainfall to deviate strongly from adopted probability distributions used in river planning. These torrential rainfalls are treated as outliers which existing studies do not evaluate. However, probability limit method test which its acceptance region expresses with high accuracy the range where observedith order statistics could realize. Confidence interval which quantifies uncertainty of adopted distributions can be constructed by assuming that these critical values in both sides of the adopted region follow the same function form applied to actual observed data. Furthermore, its validity is proved through comparison of confidence interval derived from ensemble downscaling calculations. In addition, these critical values are almost in accordance with outliers in samples from the ensemble downscaling calculations. Therefore, prediction interval which expresses the range that an unknown observed datum can take is constructed by extrapolating the critical values for limit estimation of a future datum. In this paper, quantification method of uncertainty of design rainfall and occurrence risk of outliers in the traditional framework, using the proposed confidence interval and prediction interval, is shown. Moreover, their application to future climate by using Bayesian statistics is explained.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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