HUSCAP logo Hokkaido Univ. logo

Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering >
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >

Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis

This item is licensed under:Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Files in This Item:

The file(s) associated with this item can be obtained from the following URL:

Title: Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis
Authors: Shimizu, Keita Browse this author
Yamada, Tadashi Browse this author
Yamada, Tomohito J. Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: probability limit method test
confidence interval
non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis
climate change
Issue Date: Oct-2020
Publisher: MDPI
Journal Title: Water
Volume: 12
Issue: 10
Start Page: 2727
Publisher DOI: 10.3390/w12102727
Abstract: Nonstationarity in hydrological variables has been identified throughout Japan in recent years. As a result, the reliability of designs derived from using method based on the assumption of stationary might deteriorate. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is among the measures to counter this possibility. Using this method, time variations in the probable hydrological quantity can be estimated using a non-stationary extreme value distribution model with time as an explanatory variable. In this study, we build a new method for constructing the confidence interval regarding the non-stationary extreme value distribution by applying a theory of probability limit method test. Furthermore, by introducing a confidence interval based on probability limit method test into the non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty in design rainfall because of lack of observation information was quantified, and it is shown that assessment pertaining to both the occurrence risk of extremely heavy rainfall and changes in the trend of extreme rainfall accompanied with climate change is possible.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Export metadata:

OAI-PMH ( junii2 , jpcoar_1.0 )

MathJax is now OFF:


 - Hokkaido University