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Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis
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| Title: | Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis |
| Authors: | Shimizu, Keita Browse this author | | Yamada, Tadashi Browse this author | | Yamada, Tomohito J. Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | probability limit method test | | confidence interval | | uncertainty | | non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis | | climate change |
| Issue Date: | Oct-2020 |
| Publisher: | MDPI |
| Journal Title: | Water |
| Volume: | 12 |
| Issue: | 10 |
| Start Page: | 2727 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.3390/w12102727 |
| Abstract: | Nonstationarity in hydrological variables has been identified throughout Japan in recent years. As a result, the reliability of designs derived from using method based on the assumption of stationary might deteriorate. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is among the measures to counter this possibility. Using this method, time variations in the probable hydrological quantity can be estimated using a non-stationary extreme value distribution model with time as an explanatory variable. In this study, we build a new method for constructing the confidence interval regarding the non-stationary extreme value distribution by applying a theory of probability limit method test. Furthermore, by introducing a confidence interval based on probability limit method test into the non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty in design rainfall because of lack of observation information was quantified, and it is shown that assessment pertaining to both the occurrence risk of extremely heavy rainfall and changes in the trend of extreme rainfall accompanied with climate change is possible. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/79987 |
| Appears in Collections: | 工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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