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Marine Ecosystem Variations Over the North Pacific and Their Linkage to Large-Scale Climate Variability and Change

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Title: Marine Ecosystem Variations Over the North Pacific and Their Linkage to Large-Scale Climate Variability and Change
Authors: Yati, Emi Browse this author
Minobe, Shoshiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Mantua, Nathan Browse this author
Ito, Shin-ichi Browse this author
Di Lorenzo, Emanuele Browse this author
Keywords: marine ecosystem
decadal climate variability
global warming
North Pacific
regime shift
Issue Date: 5-Nov-2020
Publisher: Frontiers Media
Journal Title: Frontiers in Marine Science
Volume: 7
Start Page: 578165
Publisher DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.578165
Abstract: In order to understand how North Pacific (NP) marine ecosystems have varied, 120 marine biological time series for both the western (29 time series) and eastern (91 time series) NP were analyzed with a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for the period 1965-2006. This is the first attempt to conduct a multivariate analysis for a large number of marine biological data in the western and eastern NP combined. We used Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate confidence levels of correlations and explained variance ratio of PCA modes while accounting for auto-correlation within the analyzed time series. All first mode principal components (PC1s), which are the time coefficients of the first PCA modes, calculated for the data in the whole, western, and eastern NP exhibit a long-term trend. The PC1s were associated with an overall increase of Alaskan and Japanese/Russian salmon, and decreases of groundfish across the basin. This mode was closely related to the warming of sea-surface temperature over the NP and over the global oceans, thereby suggesting that the strongest mode of the NP marine ecosystem was already influenced by global warming. The eastern NP PC2, characterized by multidecadal variability, was correlated positively with salmon and negatively with groundfish. On the other hand, the western NP PC2 exhibited slightly shorter timescale interdecadal variability than the eastern NP PC2 and was negatively correlated with zooplankton and two small pelagic fish time series around Japan. The eastern NP PC2 was most strongly related to the Pacific (inter-)Decadal Oscillation index, while the western NP PC2 was most closely related to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. Consequently, the present analysis provides a new and unified view of climate change and marine ecosystem variations across the western and eastern NP. In particular, it is suggested that global warming has already substantially influenced the NP marine ecosystem, and that groundfish may suffer more than pelagic fish in response to future global warming.
Rights: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/80340
Appears in Collections:理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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