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Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales : Bottlenecks and Recommendations

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Title: Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales : Bottlenecks and Recommendations
Authors: Minobe, Shoshiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Capotondi, Antonietta Browse this author
Jacox, Michael G. Browse this author
Nonaka, Masami Browse this author
Rykaczewski, Ryan R. Browse this author
Keywords: dynamical downscaling
statistical downscaling
biological forecast
marine ecosystem prediction
GCM prediction
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2022
Publisher: Frontiers Media
Journal Title: Frontiers in Marine Science
Volume: 9
Start Page: 855965
Publisher DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.855965
Abstract: This perspective paper discusses how the research community can promote enhancement of marine ecosystem forecasts using physical ocean conditions predicted by global climate models (GCMs). We review the major climate prediction projects and outline new research opportunities to achieve skillful marine biological forecasts. Physical ocean conditions are operationally predicted for subseasonal to seasonal timescales, and multi-year predictions have been enhanced recently. However, forecasting applications are currently limited by the availability of oceanic data; most subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction projects make only sea-surface temperature (SST) publicly available, though other variables useful for biological forecasts are also calculated in GCMs. To resolve the bottleneck of data availability, we recommend that climate prediction centers increase the range of ocean data available to the public, perhaps starting with an expanded suite of 2-dimensional variables, whose storage requirements are much smaller than 3-dimensional variables. Allowing forecast output to be downloaded for a selected region, rather than the whole globe, would also facilitate uptake. We highlight new research opportunities in both physical forecasting (e.g., new approaches to dynamical and statistical downscaling) and biological forecasting (e.g., conducting biological reforecasting experiments) and offer lessons learned to help guide their development. In order to accelerate this research area, we also suggest establishing case studies (i.e., particular climate and biological events as prediction targets) to improve coordination. Advancing our capacity for marine biological forecasting is crucial for the success of the UN Decade of Ocean Science, for which one of seven desired outcomes is A Predicted Ocean.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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