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Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science >
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >
Future Changes in Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Affecting Hokkaido and Their Related Precipitation Based on Large-Ensemble Climate Simulations
| Title: | Future Changes in Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Affecting Hokkaido and Their Related Precipitation Based on Large-Ensemble Climate Simulations |
| Authors: | Kawazoe, Sho Browse this author | | Inatsu, Masaru Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Yamada, Tomohito J. Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Hoshino, Tsuyoshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | Extratropical cyclones | | Storm tracks | | Tropical cyclones | | Storm environments |
| Issue Date: | 1-Mar-2023 |
| Publisher: | American Meteorological Society |
| Journal Title: | Journal of applied meteorology and climatology |
| Volume: | 62 |
| Issue: | 3 |
| Start Page: | 341 |
| End Page: | 359 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0018.1 |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of future climate warming on tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical cy-clones (ETC) using the database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) large ensemble simula-tions. Cyclone tracking was performed using the neighbor enclosed area tracking algorithm (NEAT), and TC and ETCs were identified over the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). For cyclone frequency, it was revealed that, although a slight underestimation of the total number of TCs and ETCs in both the WNP and near Hokkaido, Japan, exists, the d4PDF re-produced the spatial distribution of both TC and ETC tracks well when compared with observations/reanalysis. The 4-K warming scenarios derived from six different sea surface temperature warming patterns showed robust decreases in TC fre-quency in the tropical WNP and a slight reduction in ETCs near Japan. Next, precipitation characteristics for TCs or ETCs in the vicinity of Hokkaido were examined using 5-km-mesh regional climate ensemble simulations. Four representative cyclone locations near Hokkaido are identified using K-means clustering and revealed distinct precipitation characteristics between clusters, with higher TC-associated precipitation than ETC-associated precipitation and the heaviest precipitation in the southern portion of the prefecture. The 4-K warming scenarios revealed increased precipitation for all cyclone place-ments for both TCs and ETCs. Last, average cyclone intensity, translation speed, and size were examined. It was shown that TCs in future climates are more intense, propagate more slowly, and are smaller in terms of enclosed vorticity area as they approach Hokkaido. For ETCs, mean intensity does not change much; they travel slightly faster, and become smaller. |
| Rights: | © Copyright [2023-3-1] American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this Work, please contact permissions@ametsoc.org. Any use of material in this Work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code § 107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (https://www.copyright.com). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy) |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/90352 |
| Appears in Collections: | 理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 川添 祥
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