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Dynamics and Practical Predictability of Extratropical Wintertime Low-Frequency Variability in a Low-Dimensional System

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Title: Dynamics and Practical Predictability of Extratropical Wintertime Low-Frequency Variability in a Low-Dimensional System
Authors: Inatsu, Masaru Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Nakano, Naoto Browse this author
Mukougawa, Hitoshi Browse this author
Issue Date: Mar-2013
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Journal Title: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume: 70
Issue: 3
Start Page: 939
End Page: 952
Publisher DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-048.1
Abstract: Dynamics and practical predictability of extratropical low-frequency variability (LFV) in Northern Hemisphere winter are examined in the framework of a two-dimensional (2D) stochastic differential equation (SDE) on the phase space spanned by two leading empirical orthogonal function modes of low-pass-filtered 500-hPa geopotential height variations. The drift vector and diffusion tensor of the 2D SDE with multiplicative noise are theoretically connected with deterministic and stochastic error growth, respectively; both are statistically estimated from a reanalysis dataset. Projected onto the 2D phase space is the practical predictability of the LFV estimated by the 10-day forecast spread based on the 1-month ensemble prediction operationally conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It is shown that the forecast spread of the LFV prediction by the JMA model for a relatively shorter prediction period when the model bias does not hamper the forecast is primarily explained by the stochastic error growth associated with the diffusion tensor and the deterministic error growth due to the Jacobian of the drift vector plays a secondary role. A non-Gaussian PDF of the LFV is also related to the norm of the diffusion tensor. Hence, the stochastic processes mostly control the dynamics and predictability of the LFV in the 2D phase space.
Rights: © Copyright 2013 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at ( or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or
Type: article
Appears in Collections:理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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