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A method for structuring stochastic travel time by using risk premiums of stochastic link flow
| Title: | A method for structuring stochastic travel time by using risk premiums of stochastic link flow |
| Authors: | Tani, Ryuichi Browse this author | | Kato, Teppei Browse this author | | Uchida, Kenetsu Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | Stochastic traffic demand | | travel time reliability | | risk premium | | certainty equivalent |
| Issue Date: | 2021 |
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
| Journal Title: | Transportmetrica. A, Transport science |
| Volume: | 17 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page: | 212 |
| End Page: | 232 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1080/23249935.2020.1776416 |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a method for structuring stochastic link travel times in a road network with stochastic traffic demands. In our proposed method, the uncertainty of travel time is evaluated by link-flow-based indices. The mean link travel time is represented by using both its mean link flow and the corresponding risk premium of the stochastic link flow. The risk premium is defined by a concept of certainty equivalent derived from the relationship between a stochastic link flow and a link cost function. By expanding the concept of risk premium, a calculation method of link travel time covariance is proposed. Our proposed method defines bi-variate risk premiums, by which the mean of the product of two stochastic link travel times can be calculated. As a numerical calculation, we demonstrate our proposed method in a test network. Finally, we conclude and show future directions for evaluating real road networks. |
| Rights: | This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Transportmetrica A: Transport Science on 2021, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/23249935.2020.1776416. |
| Type: | article (author version) |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/83732 |
| Appears in Collections: | 工学院・工学研究院 (Graduate School of Engineering / Faculty of Engineering) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 峪 龍一
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